19/11/2023
The Daily Mail newspaper, which has always editorialised on the hard right wing of British politics, expresses a fear in its opinion piece on 22nd October. It warns its fellow political travellers, many of whom hold strongly anti-gay and anti-trans beliefs, that the far right will now have a similar problem that the progressive left have traditionally suffered from - a splintering of votes across numerous political parties, none of which will come to power. The Mail, which is loyal to the right of the Conservative Party, has encouraged that party to steal conspiracy theories and unhinged anti-gay extremism from groups further to the right, such as Reform UK, a deeply homophobic organisation. Now the Mail has laid into Reform UK, and other splinter factions, saying that at the next General Election, they may split the right wing, bigotry vote and lead to a Labour government under the British "first past the post" system. Political scientists such as John Curtice at the University of Strathclyde have explained to the BBC News Channel that similar dynamics may apply at the 2024 General Election as happened during the 1997 General Election, at which progressives marshalled their votes according to which party was most likely to unseat the Conservatives - whether that be Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru or SNP. At the same time, a meltdown of the Conservative vote saw the right wing electorate splintered between several smaller parties. Under "first past the post" this dynamic delivered a shocking blow to the right and elected a left of centre Parliament. The "first past the post" system that had kept the right in power for a prolonged period, suddenly worked against them. The next General Election must take place by the end of 2024 or the very first weeks of 2025.
